Lies, Damned Lies and Prevent Statistics 2024

Each year, the Home Office presents its Prevent statistics as part of its commitment to transparency. Here we outline THREE reasons why we must not rely upon them as a credible reference point.

For every researcher, NGO and individual who has ever requested a Freedom of Information request about Prevent, it is clear that the Home Office has been far from transparent about the operation, delivery and impact of Prevent. 

The annual Prevent statistics, and especially their most recent publication on the 5th of December, only serves to reinforce this trend. 

While the data presented this year is more detailed than ever before, it paradoxically tells us even less about the reality and impact of Prevent, in particular on children and other vulnerable individuals.

The most obvious lie: When the numbers don’t add up

This year’s Prevent report breaks precedent by dedicating an entire chapter to trends following October 7th, 2023—a move that was not made even during years when the UK faced multiple terrorist attacks, such as in 2017/2018. 

Although the statistics show that in October, November and December the number of referrals to Prevent were higher than the year before, they downplay the significance of this increase.

They do this by stating that there is “little difference” when compared to 2022 and 2021. In addition, they fail to differentiate the referrals related to the discourse around Palestine. 

This is a significant omission, especially considering statements from senior counter-terrorism officials. 

For instance, just six weeks after October 7th, Metropolitan Police Counter Terrorism Commander, Dominic Murphy, said that there had been a “really big number” of Prevent referrals in London since October 7 – that is, 70 referrals. He said this included “a large number of younger people, or first time individuals, [being referred] into Prevent for the first time.”

Similarly, and more recently, when reflecting on the year from October 7th, Matt Jukes, Head of Counter Terrorism police  said: “CTP has seen a seven percent increase in referrals to Prevent compared to the same time period of the previous year”.

The Home Office’s refusal to provide a similar level of context, coupled with the discrepancies between its publication and the public statements of senior officials, exposes the lie behind its claims of transparency.

The truth behind the numbers

The annual release of statistics by the Home Office, framed as an exercise in transparency, only serves to obfuscate Prevent’s systemic flaws. 

Getting caught up in these statistics only serves as a diversion from the real issues – that Prevent is curtailing rights and civil liberties, it is harming children and, above all, it is not preventing terrorism as it continues to claim.

Rather than manipulating data year after year to maintain a façade of legitimacy, it is time for the new government to confront the reality: Prevent has failed!

The growing chorus of calls to suspend Prevent—including from the United Nations Committee on the Rights of the Child, the United Nations Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination, and a host of civil society organisations—are more justified than ever. 

This article was originally published by Prevent Watch.